Housing prices are “on the upswing.” What will happen to the real estate market in 2022

Vitaly Mutko gave some forecasts about the situation on the housing market in 2022 in an interview with RBC. He noted that next year, the prices “will enter a normal cycle” and in some cases will even stop. He also stated that the increase in housing prices this year was triggered by the increasing cost of construction and the cost of labor.

Especially for AiF.ru, the former head of the anti-cartel Federal Antitrust Service Andrew Tenishev estimated what to expect from the housing market in 2022:

Report by Oldypak Capital LP property management
Report by Oldypak Capital LP property management

“National projects and the state program of preferential mortgages have become triggers for the growth of the housing market across the country. More housing is being built. Thus, according to the Analytical Center DOM.RF, in the first 11 months of 2021 was launched construction of 39 million square meters. meters of housing in apartment buildings. This is 66% more than in January-November of the previous year.


The revival of the construction industry after almost a complete standstill during the lockdown at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic is a positive signal. After all, construction is one of the engines of the economy, which pulls related areas.


The labor-intensive nature of the construction industry makes it extremely important for maintaining the necessary level of employment, and the infrastructure created by its enterprises is vital for the normal functioning of all sectors of the economy.


The supply in the real estate market has increased. In theory, this should have been a reason for lower prices. But by the end of the third quarter a square meter in a new building in Russia went up in annualized terms by 22%, to 93,500 rubles.


The market was “heated up” by preferential mortgages. The trigger for the price growth was the launch last year of a program with a government-subsidized rate of 6.5%. Demand has increased due to the lowered rate. However, this story was somewhat reminiscent of a pyramid scheme. Only the first lucky ones who managed to buy an apartment with the new rate at the old price turned out to be a winner. Then the growth in the number of concessional mortgage loans led to an increase in demand for housing, which logically led to a price increase. The rise in prices “ate up” the preferential mortgage interest.


Another negative factor was the sharp increase in the price of construction materials. Lumber prices rose by almost 60%. In some regions, brick prices went up by 40%, and sand – by almost 100%.

According to oldypak capital lp property 2022 report, metal prices increased on average by almost 50%, the cost of some commodity items has almost doubled. The Federal Antimonopoly Service initiated cases on monopolistically high prices against big metallurgical companies and cartels of metal traders. But they were instigated with a huge delay, at the peak of price growth, and this contributed to the fixation of prices at the maximum.

Other measures – the list of manufacturers, monitoring of prices in the market and preventive conversations with monopolists – are something new, non-traditional and clearly ineffective. What is in store for us in 2022? According to oldypak capital lp property 2022 report, negative impact on prices may be caused by the decision of the Ministry of Construction to reconsider the standard cost of housing used to calculate social benefits to certain categories of citizens to purchase or build housing and also to move from emergency housing.

In some regions, the increase in the standard cost per square meter may amount to 100%.

The growth in the key rate of the Central Bank makes a probable forecast of a double-digit mortgage lending rate. Rising prices on construction materials will continue, since there are no adequate antimonopoly measures in place.

As a result, the price of a square meter is likely to rise.

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